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Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072022
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022
 
Frank continues to produce a small patch of moderate convection near 
its center, but cloud tops of -50 degrees Celsius appear more 
related to remnant cirrus rather than the convection itself.  
Assuming continued weakening of the circulation since the afternoon 
ASCAT passes, Frank's initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt, which 
is also a blend of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.  
Frank's large circulation will continue to spin down over waters of 
20-22 degrees Celsius over the next couple of days, but the NHC 
intensity forecast is near the higher end of the guidance through 
that period, favoring the slower decay shown by the GFS global model 
fields.  Frank should lose its remaining convection soon and become 
post-tropical by 24 hours, and all global models indicate the 
remnant low should open up into a trough in 3 or 4 days about 
300 n mi west of the California coast.

Frank slowed down a little bit today, and is moving toward the 
northwest (310/8 kt).  Although it's decaying, Frank is essentially 
expected to recurve around strong mid-level ridging over the 
southwestern United States and ahead of a deep-layer trough well 
west of California.  There is good model consensus on this 
scenario, and only a slight westward adjustment was required on the 
new forecast after 24 hours based on the lastest track guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 23.4N 124.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 24.5N 125.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 26.2N 126.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  03/1200Z 28.1N 127.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/0000Z 30.2N 127.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/1200Z 32.0N 127.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0000Z 33.8N 126.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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