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Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022
Deep convection associated with Frank has continued to slowly
decrease in depth and coverage while the storm moves over cooler
waters. As a result, Dvorak T- and CI-numbers are decreasing
and the initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt, which is a
blend of those estimates, and the assumption weakening has occurred
since the time of the overnight scatterometer overpasses.
Frank will be moving over SSTs of 21 to 22 Celsius during the next
day or so, and this should result in a continued steady decrease in
intensity. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF
models suggest Frank will cease to produce deep convection by 36
hours, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical
cyclone by that time. The remnant low is expected to dissipate
within 3 to 4 days.
Frank continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt around the
western periphery of a mid-level ridge. By 48 hours, when the system
weakens and becomes more vertically shallow, it should turn
generally northward with the low-level flow. The NHC track
prediction is close to the latest consensus aids, which is slightly
left of the previous forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 22.4N 122.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 23.6N 123.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 25.1N 125.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 26.9N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 03/1200Z 28.8N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/0000Z 30.8N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1200Z 32.8N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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