ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022 Deep convection associated with Frank has continued to slowly decrease in depth and coverage while the storm moves over cooler waters. As a result, Dvorak T- and CI-numbers are decreasing and the initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt, which is a blend of those estimates, and the assumption weakening has occurred since the time of the overnight scatterometer overpasses. Frank will be moving over SSTs of 21 to 22 Celsius during the next day or so, and this should result in a continued steady decrease in intensity. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest Frank will cease to produce deep convection by 36 hours, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by that time. The remnant low is expected to dissipate within 3 to 4 days. Frank continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. By 48 hours, when the system weakens and becomes more vertically shallow, it should turn generally northward with the low-level flow. The NHC track prediction is close to the latest consensus aids, which is slightly left of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 22.4N 122.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 23.6N 123.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 25.1N 125.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 26.9N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1200Z 28.8N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/0000Z 30.8N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1200Z 32.8N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2022 12:10:01 UTC