ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
200 PM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022
The satellite presentation of Frank has gradually degraded today
with an erosion of deep convection over the western semicircle and
a general warming of cloud top temperatures elsewhere. An eye was
still evident in earlier microwave imagery, but it was open to the
south. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers have decreased, and a blend of
the latest CI-numbers yields an initial wind speed estimate of 70
kt.
Frank will be moving over progressively cooler waters and into a
more stable air mass over the next several days. As a result,
steady weakening should continue with Frank becoming a
post-tropical cyclone late Tuesday. This is consistent with the GFS
and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery which show little, if any,
remaining deep convection by that time. The official forecast calls
for the remnant low to dissipate by the end of the period which is
also supported by the dynamical model guidance.
Frank is moving northwestward or 320/10 kt. There is no change to
the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone should continue
northwestward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge
during the next couple of days. Once the cyclone becomes weaker
and more vertically shallow, a slower northward motion is
predicted. The new NHC track forecast is essentially an update
of the previous advisory, and it remains near the center of the
guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/2100Z 20.1N 120.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 21.3N 121.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 22.9N 122.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 24.5N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 26.2N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 27.9N 126.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/1800Z 29.5N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/1800Z 32.6N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
NNNN