ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 The satellite presentation of Frank has gradually degraded today with an erosion of deep convection over the western semicircle and a general warming of cloud top temperatures elsewhere. An eye was still evident in earlier microwave imagery, but it was open to the south. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers have decreased, and a blend of the latest CI-numbers yields an initial wind speed estimate of 70 kt. Frank will be moving over progressively cooler waters and into a more stable air mass over the next several days. As a result, steady weakening should continue with Frank becoming a post-tropical cyclone late Tuesday. This is consistent with the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery which show little, if any, remaining deep convection by that time. The official forecast calls for the remnant low to dissipate by the end of the period which is also supported by the dynamical model guidance. Frank is moving northwestward or 320/10 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone should continue northwestward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge during the next couple of days. Once the cyclone becomes weaker and more vertically shallow, a slower northward motion is predicted. The new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory, and it remains near the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 20.1N 120.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 21.3N 121.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 22.9N 122.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 24.5N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 26.2N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 27.9N 126.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1800Z 29.5N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1800Z 32.6N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2022 12:10:01 UTC