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Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
900 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022
Deep convection persists to the southwest of the center of Frank
due to moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear. Cold cloud
top temperatures currently range between -80 to -90 degrees C and
the low-level center remains partially exposed. The initial
intensity has been nudged up to 45 kt in agreement with subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB.
Global model guidance predicts that the vertical wind shear
currently reducing the rate of strengthening should subside over the
tropical storm within the next day. The relaxation of the shear,
warm ocean surface waters, and a moist atmospheric environment
should allow Frank to strengthen more quickly, potentially at a
rapid rate, between 36-72 h. The peak intensity of the official
forecast has been increased slightly to 90 kt at 60 h to reflect
this possibility. Beyond 72 h, Frank is expected steadily weaken
when it moves over cooler waters and into a more stable atmospheric
environment.
Frank is being steered westward at 10 kt by a subtropical ridge to
the north. In a day or so, the storm should gradually turn
west-northwestward to northwestward along the periphery of the
weakening ridge through the end of the forecast period. The latest
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and
closest to the dynamical model consensus aid, TVCE.
It should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are
likely to come close enough to one another to interact. The global
models still suggest that Frank will be the larger and dominant
system during this interaction, and that Georgette will have only
minor impacts on the track and intensity of Frank.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0300Z 12.7N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 13.0N 109.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 13.5N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 14.3N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 15.2N 114.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 16.3N 116.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 17.4N 118.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 19.8N 121.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 21.9N 124.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch
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