ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 900 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Deep convection persists to the southwest of the center of Frank due to moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear. Cold cloud top temperatures currently range between -80 to -90 degrees C and the low-level center remains partially exposed. The initial intensity has been nudged up to 45 kt in agreement with subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB. Global model guidance predicts that the vertical wind shear currently reducing the rate of strengthening should subside over the tropical storm within the next day. The relaxation of the shear, warm ocean surface waters, and a moist atmospheric environment should allow Frank to strengthen more quickly, potentially at a rapid rate, between 36-72 h. The peak intensity of the official forecast has been increased slightly to 90 kt at 60 h to reflect this possibility. Beyond 72 h, Frank is expected steadily weaken when it moves over cooler waters and into a more stable atmospheric environment. Frank is being steered westward at 10 kt by a subtropical ridge to the north. In a day or so, the storm should gradually turn west-northwestward to northwestward along the periphery of the weakening ridge through the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and closest to the dynamical model consensus aid, TVCE. It should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are likely to come close enough to one another to interact. The global models still suggest that Frank will be the larger and dominant system during this interaction, and that Georgette will have only minor impacts on the track and intensity of Frank. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 12.7N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 13.0N 109.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 13.5N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 14.3N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 15.2N 114.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 16.3N 116.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 17.4N 118.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 19.8N 121.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 21.9N 124.3W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci/Pasch NNNN
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