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Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 07 2022
Bonnie appears to once again be on the cusp of weakening this
evening based on satellite imagery. A 2112 UTC GMI microwave pass
showed the storm had about a 30 nm diameter eye, which was also
apparent on visible imagery. Since this overpass, the eye has
become obscured by clouds and the infrared imagery shows the cloud
tops are warming throughout the central dense overcast. Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates range between 90 kt and 65 kt. The
initial intensity was held at 80 kt, which is a blend of the TAFB
and SAB estimates.
The hurricane is quickly approaching the 26 C ocean surface
temperature threshold. There is also a considerably dry air mass
working its way around the system. These two environmental
conditions should weaken Bonnie, which is expected to become
post-tropical within about two days. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies close the
consensus guidance.
The initial motion has turned more westward and increased to near
15 kt. The track philosophy has not changed. A mid-level ridge
continues to steer Bonnie westward and as the storm weakens, it is
expected to increase in forward speed as it follows the lower trade
winds. The model guidance is very tightly clustered and the NHC
track forecast remains quite similar to both the previous advisory
and the consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0300Z 18.1N 116.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 18.6N 119.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 19.2N 122.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 19.6N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 19.9N 130.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 10/1200Z 20.0N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 11/0000Z 20.0N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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