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Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 07 2022
 
Bonnie appears to once again be on the cusp of weakening this 
evening based on satellite imagery. A 2112 UTC GMI microwave pass 
showed the storm had about a 30 nm diameter eye, which was also 
apparent on visible imagery.  Since this overpass, the eye has 
become obscured by clouds and the infrared imagery shows the cloud 
tops are warming throughout the central dense overcast. Subjective 
Dvorak intensity estimates range between 90 kt and 65 kt.  The 
initial intensity was held at 80 kt, which is a blend of the TAFB 
and SAB estimates.

The hurricane is quickly approaching the 26 C ocean surface 
temperature threshold.  There is also a considerably dry air mass 
working its way around the system.  These two environmental 
conditions should weaken Bonnie, which is expected to become 
post-tropical within about two days.  The official intensity 
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies close the 
consensus guidance.

The initial motion has turned more westward and increased to near 
15 kt.  The track philosophy has not changed.  A mid-level ridge 
continues to steer Bonnie westward and as the storm weakens, it is 
expected to increase in forward speed as it follows the lower trade 
winds.  The model guidance is very tightly clustered and the NHC 
track forecast remains quite similar to both the previous advisory 
and the consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 18.1N 116.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 18.6N 119.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 19.2N 122.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 19.6N 126.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 19.9N 130.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  10/1200Z 20.0N 133.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  11/0000Z 20.0N 136.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
 
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