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Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022
Convective banding associated Bonnie has continued to increase
since the previous advisory, with the primary band now wrapping
completely around the estimated center. Visible satellite imagery
and a recent ATMS microwave overpass suggest that the inner core
also continues to become better established. The latest subjective
Dvorak estimates are 65 and 55 kt, from TAFB and SAB respectively,
and UW/CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates have increased
to a little above 55 kt. Based on the these data, the initial
intensity has been raised to 60 kt for this advisory.
The outflow over Bonnie is still somewhat restricted over the
eastern portion of the circulation owing to some moderate easterly
shear. The shear, however, is not likely to be strong enough to
prevent strengthening, and with warm SSTs and a moist atmosphere
ahead, Bonnie is forecast to steadily intensify during the next 36
hours or so. The NHC intensity forecast now calls for a little
faster rate of strengthening during the first day or so, but shows
a similar peak intensity as the previous advisory as northeasterly
shear is expected to increase over the system between 48 and 72
hours. After that time, decreasing SSTs and a drier mid-level
environment are likely to cause gradual weakening late in the
period. The updated intensity forecast is close to the ICON
consensus aid, but is a little below the SHIPS and HWRF guidance.
Bonnie is moving west-northwestward or 285/15 kt. There has been no
change to the track forecast philosophy. Bonnie is forecast to
remain on a west-northwestward heading to the south of a mid-level
ridge over the next several days, and this motion will steer
Bonnie generally south of, but parallel to, the coast of southern
and southwestern Mexico. The track guidance remains tightly
clustered, and the NHC track lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.
The main impact from Bonnie is expected to be rough surf and the
potential for rip currents along the coast of Guatemala
through tonight and southern/southwestern Mexico Monday and
Tuesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 12.3N 94.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 13.0N 96.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 13.8N 99.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 14.7N 102.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 15.3N 105.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 15.7N 107.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 16.0N 109.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 16.6N 113.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 17.7N 119.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
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