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Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022
 
Convective banding associated Bonnie has continued to increase 
since the previous advisory, with the primary band now wrapping 
completely around the estimated center. Visible satellite imagery 
and a recent ATMS microwave overpass suggest that the inner core 
also continues to become better established. The latest subjective
Dvorak estimates are 65 and 55 kt, from TAFB and SAB respectively, 
and UW/CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates have increased 
to a little above 55 kt.  Based on the these data, the initial 
intensity has been raised to 60 kt for this advisory.
 
The outflow over Bonnie is still somewhat restricted over the 
eastern portion of the circulation owing to some moderate easterly 
shear.  The shear, however, is not likely to be strong enough to 
prevent strengthening, and with warm SSTs and a moist atmosphere 
ahead, Bonnie is forecast to steadily intensify during the next 36 
hours or so.  The NHC intensity forecast now calls for a little 
faster rate of strengthening during the first day or so, but shows 
a similar peak intensity as the previous advisory as northeasterly 
shear is expected to increase over the system between 48 and 72 
hours. After that time, decreasing SSTs and a drier mid-level 
environment are likely to cause gradual weakening late in the 
period.  The updated intensity forecast is close to the ICON 
consensus aid, but is a little below the SHIPS and HWRF guidance.   
 
Bonnie is moving west-northwestward or 285/15 kt. There has been no 
change to the track forecast philosophy.  Bonnie is forecast to 
remain on a west-northwestward heading to the south of a mid-level 
ridge over the next several days, and this motion will steer 
Bonnie generally south of, but parallel to, the coast of southern 
and southwestern Mexico. The track guidance remains tightly 
clustered, and the NHC track lies near the middle of the guidance 
envelope. 
 
The main impact from Bonnie is expected to be rough surf and the
potential for rip currents along the coast of Guatemala 
through tonight and southern/southwestern Mexico Monday and 
Tuesday. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 12.3N  94.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 13.0N  96.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 13.8N  99.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 14.7N 102.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 15.3N 105.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 15.7N 107.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 16.0N 109.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 16.6N 113.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 17.7N 119.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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