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Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
200 AM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022
Celia's convective organization has been gradually decaying
overnight, and only a few small cells with cloud-top temperatures
below -60 C remain near the center. Subjective satellite estimates
are gradually decreasing, and the latest objective satellite
estimate from ADT is down to T2.0/30 kt. Assuming the wind-field has
spun-down further from the earlier scatterometer-derived wind
values, Celia is downgraded to a tropical depression with winds of
30 kt.
The cyclone's motion remains west-northwestward at 295/10 kt. The
low- to mid-level steering should keep Celia on this same general
track for the next several days. This track brings Celia over even
cooler waters into a more stable environment, and if more organized
convection does not soon return over Celia's vortex, it is likely to
become a post-tropical cyclone later today. The latest NHC track and
intensity forecast is little changed from the previous advisory,
though the system is now made a post-tropical remnant low in 12 h,
with the remnant low opening up into a trough by Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0900Z 21.8N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 22.5N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/0600Z 23.2N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/1800Z 23.8N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0600Z 24.2N 125.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
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