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Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number  47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
200 AM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022
 
Celia's convective organization has been gradually decaying 
overnight, and only a few small cells with cloud-top temperatures 
below -60 C remain near the center. Subjective satellite estimates 
are gradually decreasing, and the latest objective satellite 
estimate from ADT is down to T2.0/30 kt. Assuming the wind-field has 
spun-down further from the earlier scatterometer-derived wind 
values, Celia is downgraded to a tropical depression with winds of 
30 kt.
 
The cyclone's motion remains west-northwestward at 295/10 kt. The 
low- to mid-level steering should keep Celia on this same general 
track for the next several days. This track brings Celia over even 
cooler waters into a more stable environment, and if more organized 
convection does not soon return over Celia's vortex, it is likely to 
become a post-tropical cyclone later today. The latest NHC track and 
intensity forecast is little changed from the previous advisory, 
though the system is now made a post-tropical remnant low in 12 h, 
with the remnant low opening up into a trough by Thursday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0900Z 21.8N 119.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 22.5N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  29/0600Z 23.2N 122.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/1800Z 23.8N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0600Z 24.2N 125.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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