ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
200 PM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022
Celia's rapidly deteriorating cloud pattern consists of a
fragmented curved band located in the northeast quadrant of the
tropical cyclone. A 1704 UTC METOP-B scatterometer pass indicated
a couple of 35 kt peak winds in that banding feature, and
the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt in deference to this
surface wind data.
Celia is expected to continue traversing cool 24C waters through
the period. This negative contribution and a stable surrounding
air mass should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a
post-tropical remnant low in 24 hours. The official intensity
forecast is based on a blend of the various intensity consensus
guidance.
The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/10
kt. A mid-level tropospheric ridge to the north of Celia should
keep this direction and forward speed through dissipation toward
the end of the week. The NHC track forecast is an update
of the previous one and lies close to the reliable NOAA HFIP
Corrected Consensus Approach aid.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 20.9N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 21.6N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 22.3N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0600Z 23.0N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1800Z 23.5N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
NNNN