ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 200 PM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Celia's rapidly deteriorating cloud pattern consists of a fragmented curved band located in the northeast quadrant of the tropical cyclone. A 1704 UTC METOP-B scatterometer pass indicated a couple of 35 kt peak winds in that banding feature, and the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt in deference to this surface wind data. Celia is expected to continue traversing cool 24C waters through the period. This negative contribution and a stable surrounding air mass should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low in 24 hours. The official intensity forecast is based on a blend of the various intensity consensus guidance. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/10 kt. A mid-level tropospheric ridge to the north of Celia should keep this direction and forward speed through dissipation toward the end of the week. The NHC track forecast is an update of the previous one and lies close to the reliable NOAA HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 20.9N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 21.6N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 22.3N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0600Z 23.0N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1800Z 23.5N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
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