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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
200 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022
Celia appears to be deteriorating based on geostationary
satellite imagery. The storm continues to have small bursts of
convection on the western and southern portion of the circulation,
however any significant convection in the northern semicircle has
disappeared. A scatterometer pass over the inner core at 0430 UTC
showed only a small area of tropical-storm-force winds, mostly in
the northwest quadrant of the storm, with peak winds of only 35-40
kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt to
account for potential undersampling. Dynamic and statistical model
guidance all forecast Celia to gradually weaken as the system moves
over cooler waters and into a dry, stable environment. The
official forecast predicts the system will become a post-tropical
remnant low by 36 h, when it will likely be devoid of deep
convection, and dissipated within a few days.
The storm is moving west-northwest at 10 kt. A mid-level ridge
extending over the eastern North Pacific is expected to continue
steering Celia at this approximate speed and direction until the
system dissipates. The NHC forecast is quite similar to the
previous forecast advisory and remains within the tightly
clustered model guidance.
Despite not becoming a hurricane, Celia is now tied for the 5th
longest-lasting June tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0900Z 20.4N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 21.0N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 21.7N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 22.5N 121.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/0600Z 23.2N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1800Z 23.8N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake
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