ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 200 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Celia appears to be deteriorating based on geostationary satellite imagery. The storm continues to have small bursts of convection on the western and southern portion of the circulation, however any significant convection in the northern semicircle has disappeared. A scatterometer pass over the inner core at 0430 UTC showed only a small area of tropical-storm-force winds, mostly in the northwest quadrant of the storm, with peak winds of only 35-40 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt to account for potential undersampling. Dynamic and statistical model guidance all forecast Celia to gradually weaken as the system moves over cooler waters and into a dry, stable environment. The official forecast predicts the system will become a post-tropical remnant low by 36 h, when it will likely be devoid of deep convection, and dissipated within a few days. The storm is moving west-northwest at 10 kt. A mid-level ridge extending over the eastern North Pacific is expected to continue steering Celia at this approximate speed and direction until the system dissipates. The NHC forecast is quite similar to the previous forecast advisory and remains within the tightly clustered model guidance. Despite not becoming a hurricane, Celia is now tied for the 5th longest-lasting June tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 20.4N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 21.0N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 21.7N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 22.5N 121.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0600Z 23.2N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/1800Z 23.8N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Blake NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2022 12:09:50 UTC