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Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022
Celia remains a poorly organized and weak tropical cyclone.
Geostationary satellite and microwave images show an exposed
low-level center with fragmented curved bands on its west side. The
initial intensity remains 25 kt, and Celia is barely hanging on as a
tropical depression. The depression has been in an environment of
strong east-northeasterly shear during the past day or so, and that
is expected to continue through tonight. Therefore, no change in
strength is expected during that time and it is possible that Celia
could even open into a trough. However, the shear is expected to
lessen after that, and given the conducive environment later in
the week, strengthening seems likely from 24-120 hours. The NHC
intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and a blend of
the HCCA and IVCN guidance.
The system is moving west-southwestward at about 7 kt. A faster
motion to the west and then the west-northwest is expected during
the next several days as the cyclone is steered by a building low-
to mid-level ridge to its north. The NHC track forecast is quite
similar to the previous one and lies a little to the north of the
consensus aids, leaning toward the GFS and ECMWF models, which are
both on the right side of the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 11.7N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 11.6N 96.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 11.8N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 12.2N 100.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 12.8N 102.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 14.6N 105.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 16.3N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 17.4N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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