ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Celia remains a poorly organized and weak tropical cyclone. Geostationary satellite and microwave images show an exposed low-level center with fragmented curved bands on its west side. The initial intensity remains 25 kt, and Celia is barely hanging on as a tropical depression. The depression has been in an environment of strong east-northeasterly shear during the past day or so, and that is expected to continue through tonight. Therefore, no change in strength is expected during that time and it is possible that Celia could even open into a trough. However, the shear is expected to lessen after that, and given the conducive environment later in the week, strengthening seems likely from 24-120 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and a blend of the HCCA and IVCN guidance. The system is moving west-southwestward at about 7 kt. A faster motion to the west and then the west-northwest is expected during the next several days as the cyclone is steered by a building low- to mid-level ridge to its north. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one and lies a little to the north of the consensus aids, leaning toward the GFS and ECMWF models, which are both on the right side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 11.7N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 11.6N 96.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 11.8N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 12.2N 100.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 12.8N 102.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 14.6N 105.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 16.3N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 17.4N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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