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Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
200 PM MST Tue Nov 09 2021
Conventional satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data show
that Terry barely classifies as a tropical cyclone. The ASCAT data
indicate that the center has become less defined over the past 24
hours. The circulation is still broadly closed, but it is
elongated with a northeast to southwest orientation. In addition,
deep convection has continued to pulse around the western portion
of the broad circulation, but there has not been much organization
to the convection over the past 12 to 24 hours. The scatterometer
data also revealed peak winds of around 20 kt, but the initial
intensity is only reduced to 25 kt for now, but that could be
generous.
Intrusions of drier mid-level air and some mid-level shear
continue to plague the system. As the cyclone moves westward, the
overall environment is expected to become more stable, which should
result in further weakening. Terry could degenerate into a trough
of low pressure at any time over the next few days, but if it does
not it is still expected to become a post-tropical remnant low
within 2-3 days.
Terry's motion is still 280/12 kt. There is again no change to the
track forecast reasoning. The cyclone or its remnants should
continue to head westward over the next few days to the south of a
strong subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific waters. The
updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
again close to the various consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 11.6N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 11.7N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 11.8N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 11.6N 119.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 11.3N 122.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0600Z 10.9N 124.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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