ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021 200 PM MST Tue Nov 09 2021 Conventional satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data show that Terry barely classifies as a tropical cyclone. The ASCAT data indicate that the center has become less defined over the past 24 hours. The circulation is still broadly closed, but it is elongated with a northeast to southwest orientation. In addition, deep convection has continued to pulse around the western portion of the broad circulation, but there has not been much organization to the convection over the past 12 to 24 hours. The scatterometer data also revealed peak winds of around 20 kt, but the initial intensity is only reduced to 25 kt for now, but that could be generous. Intrusions of drier mid-level air and some mid-level shear continue to plague the system. As the cyclone moves westward, the overall environment is expected to become more stable, which should result in further weakening. Terry could degenerate into a trough of low pressure at any time over the next few days, but if it does not it is still expected to become a post-tropical remnant low within 2-3 days. Terry's motion is still 280/12 kt. There is again no change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone or its remnants should continue to head westward over the next few days to the south of a strong subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific waters. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and again close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 11.6N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 11.7N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 11.8N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 11.6N 119.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 11.3N 122.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0600Z 10.9N 124.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN
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