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Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182021
800 AM MST Tue Nov 09 2021
 
Convective bursts continue to pulse over the western portion of 
Terry's circulation.  An 0846 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass showed 
that the overall convective organization is poor and that the 
low-level circulation appears broad.  Although Dvorak satellite 
intensity estimates still support tropical storm intensity, 
scatterometer data over the past 24 hours have revealed winds 
around 25 kt.  Given the typically undersampling of the ASCAT 
instrument the intensity is held at 30 kt, but this could be 
generous.  

Although the shear that has been plaguing Terry could decrease over 
the next day or so, intrusions of dry mid-level air are likely to 
continue to prevent strengthening.  Additionally, as the storm 
moves westward later this week the overall environment is forecast 
to become more stable, and this is expected to result in Terry 
weakening and degenerating into a remnant low or trough of low 
pressure by day 4.  That is supported by the ECMWF and UKMET models, 
however the GFS continues to show the possibility of 
re-strengthening.  Based on current trends, the official forecast 
continues to place more weight on the ECMWF/UKMET solutions. 

Terry continues to move a little north of due west or 280/12 kt. 
The cyclone should maintain a general westward heading over the 
next few days as it moves along the southern periphery of a strong 
subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific.  Although the dynamical 
models agree on the overall track scenario, there is some along- 
track spread, therefore the official forecast remains close to the 
various consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 11.1N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 11.3N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 11.5N 115.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 11.4N 118.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 11.2N 120.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  12/0000Z 10.8N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1200Z 10.5N 126.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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