ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021 800 AM MST Tue Nov 09 2021 Convective bursts continue to pulse over the western portion of Terry's circulation. An 0846 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass showed that the overall convective organization is poor and that the low-level circulation appears broad. Although Dvorak satellite intensity estimates still support tropical storm intensity, scatterometer data over the past 24 hours have revealed winds around 25 kt. Given the typically undersampling of the ASCAT instrument the intensity is held at 30 kt, but this could be generous. Although the shear that has been plaguing Terry could decrease over the next day or so, intrusions of dry mid-level air are likely to continue to prevent strengthening. Additionally, as the storm moves westward later this week the overall environment is forecast to become more stable, and this is expected to result in Terry weakening and degenerating into a remnant low or trough of low pressure by day 4. That is supported by the ECMWF and UKMET models, however the GFS continues to show the possibility of re-strengthening. Based on current trends, the official forecast continues to place more weight on the ECMWF/UKMET solutions. Terry continues to move a little north of due west or 280/12 kt. The cyclone should maintain a general westward heading over the next few days as it moves along the southern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific. Although the dynamical models agree on the overall track scenario, there is some along- track spread, therefore the official forecast remains close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 11.1N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 11.3N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 11.5N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 11.4N 118.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 11.2N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 10.8N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 10.5N 126.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN
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