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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
400 PM CDT Thu Nov 04 2021
The depression's overall appearance has not improved much today,
and the cyclone consists of a curved band that extends primarily to
the northeast of the estimated center, with the low-level center
near the edge of the deep convection. The initial intensity is
being held at 30 kt for this advisory, and is based on the latest
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS ADT.
The cyclone has wobbled a little to the west-northwest today and the
initial motion is 285/6 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge located to the
north of the depression is forecast to strengthen and expand
westward over the next few days. This should force the cyclone on
more of a westward track, or even a little south of west, along with
an increase in forward speed. This westward motion should continue
for the remainder of the 5-day forecast period. The model track
guidance remains in good agreement, and has shifted slightly south.
The latest NHC track forecast was also nudged to the south, but lies
on the northern end of the clustered track consensus solutions.
The forecast intensity philosophy remains unchanged. The environment
surrounding and ahead of the depression appears generally favorable
for strengthening with ample atmospheric moisture and SSTs of 27 to
28 degrees C. However, 5 to 10 kt of westerly shear combined with
the cyclone's increasing westward motion may cause convection to
periodically get stripped to the east of its center. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one,
and remains near the IVCN and NOAA-HCCA consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 9.6N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 9.7N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 9.5N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 9.2N 94.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 9.0N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 8.9N 98.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 9.2N 100.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 10.1N 105.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 11.0N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Latto
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