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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182021
400 PM CDT Thu Nov 04 2021
 
The depression's overall appearance has not improved much today, 
and the cyclone consists of a curved band that extends primarily to 
the northeast of the estimated center, with the low-level center 
near the edge of the deep convection. The initial intensity is 
being held at 30 kt for this advisory, and is based on the latest 
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS ADT.

The cyclone has wobbled a little to the west-northwest today and the 
initial motion is 285/6 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge located to the 
north of the depression is forecast to strengthen and expand 
westward over the next few days. This should force the cyclone on 
more of a westward track, or even a little south of west, along with 
an increase in forward speed. This westward motion should continue 
for the remainder of the 5-day forecast period. The model track 
guidance remains in good agreement, and has shifted slightly south. 
The latest NHC track forecast was also nudged to the south, but lies 
on the northern end of the clustered track consensus solutions.

The forecast intensity philosophy remains unchanged. The environment 
surrounding and ahead of the depression appears generally favorable 
for strengthening with ample atmospheric moisture and SSTs of 27 to 
28 degrees C. However, 5 to 10 kt of westerly shear combined with 
the cyclone's increasing westward motion may cause convection to 
periodically get stripped to the east of its center. The latest NHC 
intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one, 
and remains near the IVCN and NOAA-HCCA consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z  9.6N  90.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z  9.7N  91.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z  9.5N  92.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z  9.2N  94.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z  9.0N  96.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z  8.9N  98.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z  9.2N 100.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 10.1N 105.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 11.0N 110.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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