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Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 19 2021
Linda continues to come unhinged. Dry and stable air has wrapped
almost completely into the cyclone's circulation, as indicated by
the low-level stratocumulus cloud field that now primarily
characterizes the system. Linda has now lacked organized deep
convection for nearly 6 h. A blend of the T- and CI- numbers from
the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates suggest that the
cyclone's initial intensity has decreased to 45 kt. Cool SSTs of
24-25 C and dry, stable air should prevent any significant deep
convection from returning over the next couple of days. Therefore,
Linda could be declared post-tropical by tonight. The low will reach
warmer waters in a few days. However, by that time, strong
southwesterly shear within a dry environment should inhibit
regeneration of the cyclone, and the low should should open into a
trough early next week. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains
near the HCCA and IVCN consensus.
Over the past several hours Linda has moved almost due west with a
12 h motion of about 275/15 kt. Steered by a low- mid-level ridge to
its north, a general westward motion is expected until the system
dissipates. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the
previous one, and is close to the tightly packed track guidance.
Linda is crossing into the central Pacific basin, and this will be
the final NHC advisory on this system. Future information on Linda
can be found in Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center beginning at 0300 UTC under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP3
and WMO header WTPA23 PHFO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 19.7N 139.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 19.9N 141.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 20/1800Z 20.2N 144.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0600Z 20.4N 147.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1800Z 20.8N 149.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0600Z 21.1N 151.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1800Z 21.5N 153.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z 22.0N 158.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Latto
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