ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 19 2021 Linda continues to come unhinged. Dry and stable air has wrapped almost completely into the cyclone's circulation, as indicated by the low-level stratocumulus cloud field that now primarily characterizes the system. Linda has now lacked organized deep convection for nearly 6 h. A blend of the T- and CI- numbers from the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates suggest that the cyclone's initial intensity has decreased to 45 kt. Cool SSTs of 24-25 C and dry, stable air should prevent any significant deep convection from returning over the next couple of days. Therefore, Linda could be declared post-tropical by tonight. The low will reach warmer waters in a few days. However, by that time, strong southwesterly shear within a dry environment should inhibit regeneration of the cyclone, and the low should should open into a trough early next week. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains near the HCCA and IVCN consensus. Over the past several hours Linda has moved almost due west with a 12 h motion of about 275/15 kt. Steered by a low- mid-level ridge to its north, a general westward motion is expected until the system dissipates. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is close to the tightly packed track guidance. Linda is crossing into the central Pacific basin, and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. Future information on Linda can be found in Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 0300 UTC under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP3 and WMO header WTPA23 PHFO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 19.7N 139.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 19.9N 141.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 20/1800Z 20.2N 144.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0600Z 20.4N 147.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1800Z 20.8N 149.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/0600Z 21.1N 151.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1800Z 21.5N 153.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1800Z 22.0N 158.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:10:03 UTC