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Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 AM HST Thu Aug 19 2021
Linda has weakened rapidly over the past several hours. The
cyclone no longer has an eye, and its deep convection is dissipating
and becoming confined mainly to the north of the low-level center.
The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB both
indicate that the initial intensity has decreased to 60 kt, making
Linda a tropical storm.
The initial motion estimate is now 280/14 kt. This general motion is
forecast to continue for the next several days as the cyclone
remains in the flow to the south of a strong subtropical ridge. The
model track guidance is in very good agreement, and the latest NHC
track forecast lies near the various consensus model solutions.
The cooler waters of 24-25 C and dry, stable air are taking their
toll on Linda. These conditions are not supportive of the return of
deep convection, and therefore the cyclone should continue to
quickly weaken in the short term. Based on the convective trends,
there is a possibility that Linda could degenerate into a
post-tropical gale within the next couple of days. The NHC forecast
is conservative and shows Linda remaining a tropical cyclone through
Saturday. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains similar to the
IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 19.9N 137.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 20.3N 139.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 20.7N 142.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 21.0N 145.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 21.3N 148.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 21.7N 150.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 22/1200Z 22.0N 152.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 23/1200Z 22.7N 157.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1200Z 23.2N 162.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Latto
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