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Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
500 AM HST Thu Aug 19 2021
 
Linda has weakened rapidly over the past several hours. The 
cyclone no longer has an eye, and its deep convection is dissipating 
and becoming confined mainly to the north of the low-level center. 
The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB both 
indicate that the initial intensity has decreased to 60 kt, making 
Linda a tropical storm. 

The initial motion estimate is now 280/14 kt. This general motion is 
forecast to continue for the next several days as the cyclone 
remains in the flow to the south of a strong subtropical ridge. The 
model track guidance is in very good agreement, and the latest NHC 
track forecast lies near the various consensus model solutions. 

The cooler waters of 24-25 C and dry, stable air are taking their 
toll on Linda. These conditions are not supportive of the return of 
deep convection, and therefore the cyclone should continue to 
quickly weaken in the short term. Based on the convective trends, 
there is a possibility that Linda could degenerate into a 
post-tropical gale within the next couple of days. The NHC forecast 
is conservative and shows Linda remaining a tropical cyclone through 
Saturday. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains similar to the 
IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/1500Z 19.9N 137.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 20.3N 139.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 20.7N 142.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 21.0N 145.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 21.3N 148.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  22/0000Z 21.7N 150.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  22/1200Z 22.0N 152.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  23/1200Z 22.7N 157.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1200Z 23.2N 162.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
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Forecaster Latto
 
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