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Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 AM HST Tue Aug 17 2021
Linda has not changed much during the past several hours. The
system still has characteristics of an annular hurricane with a
large circular eye (a little more than 30 n mi in diameter) and a
ring of deep convection completely surrounding that feature. The
convection in the eyewall appears a little less symmetric than it
was a few hours ago, however. A blend of the latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin support nudging the intensity down to 75 kt.
Even though Linda is over cool 25-26 deg C waters, research has
proven that tropical cyclones that are characterized by an annular
cloud pattern usually weaken more slowly than the climatological
rate in the eastern Pacific, and we expect Linda to be in that
category during the next day or so. Nonetheless, a combination of
cool SSTs and drier air should induce a slow weakening trend. The
models suggest that an increase in southerly shear is likely toward
the end of the forecast period, and that could assist in the storm
becoming post-tropical by then. The NHC intensity forecast lies
near the high end of the guidance in the short term and then falls
in line with the majority of the guidance from days 3-5.
Linda is moving nearly due westward at 265/9 kt. The track
forecast reasoning appears fairly straightforward. A mid-level
ridge is expected to remain anchored to the north of Linda, which
should keep the storm on a westward to west-northwestward track
during the next several days. The models are tightly clustered, and
only small changes were made to the previous track forecast. Based
on this prediction, Linda is expected to cross into the Central
Pacific basin in 60-72 h and be located to the north or northeast of
the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend and early next week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 17.5N 127.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 17.8N 128.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 18.3N 131.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 19.1N 133.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 20.1N 136.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 20.8N 139.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 21.3N 142.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 22.0N 147.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 22/1200Z 22.5N 151.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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