ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 500 AM HST Tue Aug 17 2021 Linda has not changed much during the past several hours. The system still has characteristics of an annular hurricane with a large circular eye (a little more than 30 n mi in diameter) and a ring of deep convection completely surrounding that feature. The convection in the eyewall appears a little less symmetric than it was a few hours ago, however. A blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support nudging the intensity down to 75 kt. Even though Linda is over cool 25-26 deg C waters, research has proven that tropical cyclones that are characterized by an annular cloud pattern usually weaken more slowly than the climatological rate in the eastern Pacific, and we expect Linda to be in that category during the next day or so. Nonetheless, a combination of cool SSTs and drier air should induce a slow weakening trend. The models suggest that an increase in southerly shear is likely toward the end of the forecast period, and that could assist in the storm becoming post-tropical by then. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term and then falls in line with the majority of the guidance from days 3-5. Linda is moving nearly due westward at 265/9 kt. The track forecast reasoning appears fairly straightforward. A mid-level ridge is expected to remain anchored to the north of Linda, which should keep the storm on a westward to west-northwestward track during the next several days. The models are tightly clustered, and only small changes were made to the previous track forecast. Based on this prediction, Linda is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin in 60-72 h and be located to the north or northeast of the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend and early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 17.5N 127.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 17.8N 128.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 18.3N 131.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 19.1N 133.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 20.1N 136.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 20.8N 139.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 21.3N 142.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 22.0N 147.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 22/1200Z 22.5N 151.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:10:02 UTC