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Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 PM HST Mon Aug 16 2021
This evening's conventional satellite images indicate that the
cloud pattern hasn't changed that much during the past 6 hours. If
anything, the eyewall cloud top temperatures continue to gradually
warm, however, the convective MG (-51 to -53C) ring is showing less
erosion in the west quadrant as noted earlier. A blend of the
objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates supports
maintaining 85 kt for this advisory.
Finally, Linda has begun moving over cooler 25C waters, so we could
see some weakening overnight. NOAA's daily Real-Time Global Sea
Surface temperature analysis, however, reveals a marginally warm
pool of water just to the west of the hurricane. Consequently,
little change in strength, or possibly some restrengthening could
occur on Tuesday. Toward the end of the week, Linda is forecast to
traverse even cooler oceanic temperatures which should induce a
more rapid weakening as the cyclone crosses into the central
Pacific. The NHC forecast follows the statistical SHIPS intensity
model through 60 hours, then stays close to the IVCN consensus aid.
Linda is embedded in the deep easterly flow provided by high
pressure located over the northeast Pacific, and the initial motion
is 265/8 kt. The hurricane should be bending back to the right
(west-northwestward) around early Wednesday as the aforementioned
ridge builds to the northeast, behind a mid- to upper-level trough
approaching the U.S. west coast and the Baja California peninsula.
Global and regional models are in agreement that Linda should
continue moving toward the west-northwest through day 5, and the
official forecast follows suit. The track forecast is near the
middle of the guidance envelope, and is in best agreement with the
TVCN multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0300Z 17.7N 125.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 17.7N 126.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 17.9N 128.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 18.6N 130.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 19.4N 133.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 20.3N 136.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 21.1N 139.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 22.1N 144.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 22/0000Z 22.9N 148.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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