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Hurricane Linda Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
500 PM HST Mon Aug 16 2021
 
This evening's conventional satellite images indicate that the
cloud pattern hasn't changed that much during the past 6 hours.  If
anything, the eyewall cloud top temperatures continue to gradually
warm, however, the convective MG (-51 to -53C) ring is showing less
erosion in the west quadrant as noted earlier.  A blend of the 
objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates supports 
maintaining 85 kt for this advisory.
 
Finally, Linda has begun moving over cooler 25C waters, so we could
see some weakening overnight.  NOAA's daily Real-Time Global Sea 
Surface temperature analysis, however, reveals a marginally warm 
pool of water just to the west of the hurricane.  Consequently, 
little change in strength, or possibly some restrengthening could 
occur on Tuesday.  Toward the end of the week, Linda is forecast to 
traverse even cooler oceanic temperatures which should induce a 
more rapid weakening as the cyclone crosses into the central 
Pacific.  The NHC forecast follows the statistical SHIPS intensity 
model through 60 hours, then stays close to the IVCN consensus aid.
 
Linda is embedded in the deep easterly flow provided by high
pressure located over the northeast Pacific, and the initial motion
is 265/8 kt.  The hurricane should be bending back to the right 
(west-northwestward) around early Wednesday as the aforementioned 
ridge builds to the northeast, behind a mid- to upper-level trough 
approaching the U.S. west coast and the Baja California peninsula.  
Global and regional models are in agreement that Linda should 
continue moving toward the west-northwest through day 5, and the 
official forecast follows suit.  The track forecast is near the 
middle of the guidance envelope, and is in best agreement with the 
TVCN multi-model consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 17.7N 125.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 17.7N 126.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 17.9N 128.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 18.6N 130.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 19.4N 133.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  19/1200Z 20.3N 136.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 21.1N 139.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  21/0000Z 22.1N 144.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  22/0000Z 22.9N 148.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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