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Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 PM HST Sun Aug 15 2021
This evening's satellite presentation reveals little change in
Linda's annular cloud pattern. The eyewall consists of -60 to -65C
cloud tops and the 38-n-mi-diameter obscured eye temperature is a
warm +12C. Once again, using a consensus of the Final T- and CI-
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB along with a
blend of an earlier SATCON and UW-CIMSS ADT estimates, the initial
intensity is held at 95 kt.
While Linda is expected to move in a generally west-southwestward
to westward motion during the next couple of days, the annular
hurricane will essentially be paralleling an oceanic temperature
gradient while remaining over 26-27C waters. Since the wind shear
component is forecast to remain low throughout the entire forecast,
only invading drier more stable air will negatively affect the
cyclone's intensity. Intensive research in the past has proven that
these truck-tire-shaped tropical cyclones tend to weaken slower
than the climatological rate recognized in the eastern Pacific.
Therefore, only slow weakening is forecast through the 60-hour
period. Afterward, Linda will move over a steep sea-surface
temperature gradient (sub-24C) which should induce a more rapid
weakening pace. The NHC intensity forecast is hedged closely to
the Decay-SHIPS model through 60 hours, then uses a blend of the
global models and the IVCN/HCCA consensus aids through day 5.
The initial motion estimate is west-southwestward, or 255/9 kt,
and this general heading should continue through Monday night. A
subsequent turn back to the west is forecast as mid-tropospheric
high pressure over the northeastern Pacific builds southward along
135W. At the 48-hour period, a turn toward the west-northwest is
expected as Linda rounds the southwestern periphery of the
aforementioned ridge. The latest NHC track forecast is basically
just an update of the previous one through day 3, and then is
adjusted slightly to the left closer to the TVCN consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0300Z 18.6N 122.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 18.2N 123.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 17.8N 124.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 17.7N 126.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 18.1N 128.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 18.6N 130.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 19.5N 133.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 21.1N 138.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 22.3N 142.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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