ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Hurricane Linda Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
500 PM HST Sun Aug 15 2021
 
This evening's satellite presentation reveals little change in 
Linda's annular cloud pattern.  The eyewall consists of -60 to -65C 
cloud tops and the 38-n-mi-diameter obscured eye temperature is a 
warm +12C.  Once again, using a consensus of the Final T- and CI- 
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB along with a 
blend of an earlier SATCON and UW-CIMSS ADT estimates, the initial 
intensity is held at 95 kt.
 
While Linda is expected to move in a generally west-southwestward
to westward motion during the next couple of days, the annular 
hurricane will essentially be paralleling an oceanic temperature 
gradient while remaining over 26-27C waters.  Since the wind shear 
component is forecast to remain low throughout the entire forecast, 
only invading drier more stable air will negatively affect the
cyclone's intensity.  Intensive research in the past has proven that
these truck-tire-shaped tropical cyclones tend to weaken slower 
than the climatological rate recognized in the eastern Pacific.  
Therefore, only slow weakening is forecast through the 60-hour 
period.  Afterward, Linda will move over a steep sea-surface 
temperature gradient (sub-24C) which should induce a more rapid 
weakening pace.  The NHC intensity forecast is hedged closely to 
the Decay-SHIPS model through 60 hours, then uses a blend of the 
global models and the IVCN/HCCA consensus aids through day 5.
 
The initial motion estimate is west-southwestward, or 255/9 kt, 
and this general heading should continue through Monday night.  A 
subsequent turn back to the west is forecast as mid-tropospheric 
high pressure over the northeastern Pacific builds southward along 
135W.  At the 48-hour period, a turn toward the west-northwest is 
expected as Linda rounds the southwestern periphery of the 
aforementioned ridge.  The latest NHC track forecast is basically 
just an update of the previous one through day 3, and then is 
adjusted slightly to the left closer to the TVCN consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 18.6N 122.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 18.2N 123.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 17.8N 124.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 17.7N 126.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 18.1N 128.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  18/1200Z 18.6N 130.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 19.5N 133.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 21.1N 138.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 22.3N 142.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
NNNN