ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 14 2021
Although Linda is still quite an impressive and powerful hurricane,
inner-core cloud tops have been warming during the past several
hours. Furthermore, the eye has become more obscured during the
past few hours, with convoluted cloud elements and a few
mesovortices identifiable in High resolution visible imagery. A
series of microwave images from earlier today, suggest a concentric,
outer convective ring may be forming, usually indicative of an
eyewall replacement cycle. The latest subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates indicate that Linda has weakened to
110 kt, and the initial intensity is lowered to this value for this
advisory.
With the possibility that Linda maybe undergoing an eyewall
replacement cycle, fluctuations in strength are possible during the
next few hours. Regardless of any inner-core structural changes,
Linda will be moving over gradually decreasing oceanic temperatures
and into a more statically stable and drier surrounding environment
during the next several days. Based on the statistical GFS and
ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance and the large-scale and regional
models, Linda should begin a weakening trend soon, if it hasn't
started already. The NHC intensity forecast resembles the previous
advisory, and is in best agreement with the HCCA and IVCN intensity
consensus aids.
Linda is embedded within the mid-tropospheric south peripheral flow
of a strengthening ridge to the north, and the initial motion is
estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/12 kt. This subtropical
ridge is forecast to build back westward to the northwest of Linda
during the next 24-36 h, inducing a turn toward the west-southwest.
Around early Tuesday, the hurricane is expected to turn back toward
the west and west-northwest in response to a mid-level cut-off low
forming west of the Baja California peninsula. The official track
forecast is based primarily on the TVCN consensus model and is quite
similar to the previous NHC forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 19.3N 118.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 19.4N 119.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 19.1N 121.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 18.6N 123.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 18.1N 125.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 18.0N 127.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 18.2N 128.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 19.6N 133.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 21.6N 137.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Roberts
NNNN