ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Hurricane Linda Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 14 2021
 
Although Linda is still quite an impressive and powerful hurricane, 
inner-core cloud tops have been warming during the past several 
hours.  Furthermore, the eye has become more obscured during the 
past few hours, with convoluted cloud elements and a few 
mesovortices identifiable in High resolution visible imagery.  A 
series of microwave images from earlier today, suggest a concentric, 
outer convective ring may be forming, usually indicative of an 
eyewall replacement cycle.  The latest subjective and objective 
satellite intensity estimates indicate that Linda has weakened to 
110 kt, and the initial intensity is lowered to this value for this 
advisory.
 
With the possibility that Linda maybe undergoing an eyewall 
replacement cycle, fluctuations in strength are possible during the 
next few hours.  Regardless of any inner-core structural changes, 
Linda will be moving over gradually decreasing oceanic temperatures 
and into a more statically stable and drier surrounding environment 
during the next several days.  Based on the statistical GFS and 
ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance and the large-scale and regional 
models, Linda should begin a weakening trend soon, if it hasn't 
started already.  The NHC intensity forecast resembles the previous 
advisory, and is in best agreement with the HCCA and IVCN intensity 
consensus aids.
 
Linda is embedded within the mid-tropospheric south peripheral flow 
of a strengthening ridge to the north, and the initial motion is 
estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/12 kt.  This subtropical 
ridge is forecast to build back westward to the northwest of Linda 
during the next 24-36 h, inducing a turn toward the west-southwest.  
Around early Tuesday, the hurricane is expected to turn back toward 
the west and west-northwest in response to a mid-level cut-off low 
forming west of the Baja California peninsula. The official track 
forecast is based primarily on the TVCN consensus model and is quite 
similar to the previous NHC forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 19.3N 118.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 19.4N 119.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 19.1N 121.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 18.6N 123.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 18.1N 125.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  17/1200Z 18.0N 127.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 18.2N 128.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 19.6N 133.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 21.6N 137.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
NNNN