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Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
800 AM PDT Sat Aug 14 2021
Linda is maintaining a well-defined 15-n mi wide eye, and a quite
symmetric surrounding convective cloud pattern. Taking a blend of
the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates gives a current
intensity estimate of about 115 kt, i.e. category 4 strength.
Linda may undergo an eyewall replacement later today, which is
typical for intense hurricanes, and this could cause some
short-term fluctuations in intensity. The hurricane is currently
in a low-vertical shear environment, and the dynamical guidance
indicates that the shear will remain low for the next few days.
However, SSTs beneath Linda should gradually lower along with
decreasing environmental mid-level humidities during the next
several days. Thus a slow weakening trend should commence by
tonight. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the
corrected and simple model consensus predictions.
The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
290/11 kt. There is little change to the expected steering
scenario. Linda is moving along the southern side of a pronounced
subtropical ridge. The ridge is predicted by the global models to
build westward to the northwest of the hurricane during the next
couple of days. This should cause Linda to turn toward the
west-southwest within the next day or two. Late in the forecast
period, as the ridge weakens, the cyclone is forecast to turn
westward. The NHC track forecast is very close to the previous
one and in good agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 18.8N 116.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 19.1N 117.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 19.2N 119.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 19.0N 121.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 18.5N 123.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 18.0N 125.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 17.9N 127.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 18.5N 131.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 20.5N 136.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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