ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Linda is maintaining a well-defined 15-n mi wide eye, and a quite symmetric surrounding convective cloud pattern. Taking a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates gives a current intensity estimate of about 115 kt, i.e. category 4 strength. Linda may undergo an eyewall replacement later today, which is typical for intense hurricanes, and this could cause some short-term fluctuations in intensity. The hurricane is currently in a low-vertical shear environment, and the dynamical guidance indicates that the shear will remain low for the next few days. However, SSTs beneath Linda should gradually lower along with decreasing environmental mid-level humidities during the next several days. Thus a slow weakening trend should commence by tonight. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the corrected and simple model consensus predictions. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt. There is little change to the expected steering scenario. Linda is moving along the southern side of a pronounced subtropical ridge. The ridge is predicted by the global models to build westward to the northwest of the hurricane during the next couple of days. This should cause Linda to turn toward the west-southwest within the next day or two. Late in the forecast period, as the ridge weakens, the cyclone is forecast to turn westward. The NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one and in good agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 18.8N 116.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 19.1N 117.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 19.2N 119.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 19.0N 121.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 18.5N 123.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 18.0N 125.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 17.9N 127.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 18.5N 131.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 20.5N 136.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:10:02 UTC