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Hurricane LINDA (Text)


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Hurricane Linda Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
800 AM PDT Sat Aug 14 2021
 
Linda is maintaining a well-defined 15-n mi wide eye, and a quite
symmetric surrounding convective cloud pattern.  Taking a blend of
the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates gives a current
intensity estimate of about 115 kt, i.e. category 4 strength.
 
Linda may undergo an eyewall replacement later today, which is
typical for intense hurricanes, and this could cause some
short-term fluctuations in intensity.  The hurricane is currently
in a low-vertical shear environment, and the dynamical guidance
indicates that the shear will remain low for the next few days.
However, SSTs beneath Linda should gradually lower along with 
decreasing environmental mid-level humidities during the next 
several days. Thus a slow weakening trend should commence by 
tonight.  The official intensity forecast is a blend of the 
corrected and simple model consensus predictions.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 
290/11 kt.  There is little change to the expected steering 
scenario.  Linda is moving along the southern side of a pronounced 
subtropical ridge.  The ridge is predicted by the global models to 
build westward to the northwest of the hurricane during the next 
couple of days.  This should cause Linda to turn toward the 
west-southwest within the next day or two.  Late in the forecast 
period, as the ridge weakens, the cyclone is forecast to turn 
westward. The NHC track forecast is very close to the previous 
one and in good agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z 18.8N 116.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 19.1N 117.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 19.2N 119.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 19.0N 121.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 18.5N 123.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  17/0000Z 18.0N 125.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 17.9N 127.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  18/1200Z 18.5N 131.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 20.5N 136.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:10:02 UTC