ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
900 AM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021
Linda's structure has continued to improve since early this morning.
An eye was evident in longwave and shortwave IR imagery from GOES-17
and GOES-15 near 1200 UTC, though it has since become obscured by
cold cloud tops associated with eyewall convection. An earlier AMSR
overpass showed evidence of a ring of shallow to moderate
convection, often associated with rapidly intensifying cyclones.
Intensity estimates at 1200 UTC ranged from 77 kt to 97 kt, so the
initial intensity was set at 90 kt, in closest agreement with the
U-W CIMSS SATCON. It is worth noting that Linda's intensity is in a
range where estimates can range greatly, so confidence in that
assessment is not particularly high.
Computational problems with the GFS this morning has limited the
guidance available for the forecast, particularly with respect to
the intensity. Therefore, despite the higher initial intensity and
recent improvement in convective structure, the official intensity
forecast was only modestly increased in the short term. It does not
appear that wind shear will be a major inhibiting factor during the
next day or two. Environmental moisture and SSTs should also be
sufficient for further strengthening. The NHC forecast is a little
above the model consensus and previous forecast for the next
24-36 h. After that time, Linda should move over cooler SSTs which
should cause at least gradual weakening. By the end of the 5-day
period, the NHC forecast is in line with the consensus and identical
to the previous advisory.
Only small tweaks were made to the NHC track forecast. Linda
continues to move toward the west-northwest with an estimated
forward speed of 11 kt. The global models unanimously forecast that
a deep-layer ridge to the north of Linda will build over the
weekend, causing the hurricane to turn westward, and then
west-southwestward by early next week. Confidence in the track
forecast is quite high due to the agreement among the track models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/1500Z 16.9N 111.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 17.6N 113.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 18.4N 115.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 18.8N 118.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 18.8N 120.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 18.6N 122.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 18.2N 124.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 17.5N 128.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 18.5N 132.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
NNNN