Hurricane LINDA (Text)

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
900 AM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Linda's structure has continued to improve since early this morning. 
An eye was evident in longwave and shortwave IR imagery from GOES-17 
and GOES-15 near 1200 UTC, though it has since become obscured by 
cold cloud tops associated with eyewall convection. An earlier AMSR 
overpass showed evidence of a ring of shallow to moderate 
convection, often associated with rapidly intensifying cyclones. 
Intensity estimates at 1200 UTC ranged from 77 kt to 97 kt, so the 
initial intensity was set at 90 kt, in closest agreement with the 
U-W CIMSS SATCON. It is worth noting that Linda's intensity is in a 
range where estimates can range greatly, so confidence in that 
assessment is not particularly high.

Computational problems with the GFS this morning has limited the 
guidance available for the forecast, particularly with respect to 
the intensity. Therefore, despite the higher initial intensity and 
recent improvement in convective structure, the official intensity 
forecast was only modestly increased in the short term. It does not 
appear that wind shear will be a major inhibiting factor during the 
next day or two. Environmental moisture and SSTs should also be 
sufficient for further strengthening. The NHC forecast is a little 
above the model consensus and previous forecast for the next 
24-36 h. After that time, Linda should move over cooler SSTs which 
should cause at least gradual weakening. By the end of the 5-day 
period, the NHC forecast is in line with the consensus and identical 
to the previous advisory.

Only small tweaks were made to the NHC track forecast. Linda 
continues to move toward the west-northwest with an estimated 
forward speed of 11 kt. The global models unanimously forecast that 
a deep-layer ridge to the north of Linda will build over the 
weekend, causing the hurricane to turn westward, and then 
west-southwestward by early next week. Confidence in the track 
forecast is quite high due to the agreement among the track models.
INIT  13/1500Z 16.9N 111.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 17.6N 113.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 18.4N 115.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 18.8N 118.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 18.8N 120.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  16/0000Z 18.6N 122.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  16/1200Z 18.2N 124.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  17/1200Z 17.5N 128.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  18/1200Z 18.5N 132.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
Forecaster Zelinsky

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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:10:02 UTC