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Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
300 AM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021
Over the past couple of hours, satellite images show the convection
becoming more symmetrical around warming cloud tops over Linda's
center, indicating a better-defined eye may be forming. The latest
Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from 65 to 82 kt, and based on the
recent satellite trends, the higher end of these estimates are
favored for an initial intensity of 80 kt. A recent ASCAT overpass
was able to provide useful information regarding the cyclone's wind
radii, with winds of tropical storm force extending up to 150 n mi
to the south of its center.
Given the improving structure of the cyclone, Linda is expected to
strengthen quickly over the next day or so, while the system is
forecast to remain in an environment of decreasing vertical wind
shear and over warm waters. By 48 h, decreasing SSTs and
increasingly unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the
cyclone to begin weakening. The latest NHC intensity forecast is
little changed from the previous one, and lies between the IVCN
consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA.
Linda is moving toward the west-northwest at 11 kt along the
periphery of a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. This
ridge is forecast to build westward with time, and eventually build
to the northwest of the cyclone as well, forcing it to the west in
a couple of days and then perhaps west-southwest later in the
forecast period. The track guidance is in very good agreement on
this scenario and only slight adjustments were made to the previous
NHC track forecast. This prediction lies near the various
consensus model tracks.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0900Z 16.4N 110.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 17.1N 112.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 18.0N 114.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 18.6N 116.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 18.9N 119.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 18.8N 121.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 18.5N 123.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 17.9N 127.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 18.0N 131.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Latto
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