Hurricane LINDA (Text)

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
300 AM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021
Over the past couple of hours, satellite images show the convection 
becoming more symmetrical around warming cloud tops over Linda's 
center, indicating a better-defined eye may be forming.  The latest 
Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from 65 to 82 kt, and based on the 
recent satellite trends, the higher end of these estimates are 
favored for an initial intensity of 80 kt. A recent ASCAT overpass 
was able to provide useful information regarding the cyclone's wind 
radii, with winds of tropical storm force extending up to 150 n mi 
to the south of its center. 
Given the improving structure of the cyclone, Linda is expected to 
strengthen quickly over the next day or so, while the system is 
forecast to remain in an environment of decreasing vertical wind 
shear and over warm waters. By 48 h, decreasing SSTs and 
increasingly unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the 
cyclone to begin weakening. The latest NHC intensity forecast is 
little changed from the previous one, and lies between the IVCN 
consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA.
Linda is moving toward the west-northwest at 11 kt along the 
periphery of a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. This 
ridge is forecast to build westward with time, and eventually build 
to the northwest of the cyclone as well, forcing it to the west in 
a couple of days and then perhaps west-southwest later in the 
forecast period. The track guidance is in very good agreement on 
this scenario and only slight adjustments were made to the previous 
NHC track forecast.  This prediction lies near the various 
consensus model tracks.
INIT  13/0900Z 16.4N 110.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 17.1N 112.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 18.0N 114.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 18.6N 116.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 18.9N 119.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  15/1800Z 18.8N 121.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 18.5N 123.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 17.9N 127.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  18/0600Z 18.0N 131.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
Forecaster Latto

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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:10:02 UTC