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Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
300 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021
Recent proxy-visible satellite imagery indicates that the low-level
center of Linda lies near the northwestern extent of the dense
overcast, as its deep convection is being displaced southward by
moderate northerly wind shear. Although its center was briefly
partially exposed overnight, it appears that the center has recently
moved a bit farther underneath the cirrus canopy. A 0318 UTC ASCAT-A
pass shows several 50-kt wind vectors in the northeastern quadrant
of Linda. After accounting for some known undersampling issues of
the instrument at higher wind speeds, this supports maintaining the
initial intensity at 60 kt for this advisory. This estimate is also
consistent with a blend of the subjective Dvorak current intensity
estimates received from TAFB (55 kt) and SAB (65 kt).
After a brief west-southwest turn yesterday, Linda is now moving
slowly west-northwestward at around 285/5 kt. This general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days
as Linda moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer
ridge. By days 4 and 5, the cyclone is forecast to turn westward as
the steering ridge strengthens to its north. Overall, the guidance
is in good agreement on the track of Linda. The official NHC track
forecast is shifted a bit north of the previous one, which brings it
closer to the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. The cyclone is expected
to pass near or south of Clarion Island on Friday night.
The northerly wind shear that has plagued Linda for the past couple
days is forecast to persist for another 24 h, then diminish slightly
by this weekend. Otherwise, Linda will remain over very warm SSTs in
a moist, unstable environment for the next couple days or so, which
should favor at least some modest strengthening. However, the latest
intensity guidance consensus is somewhat weaker than the previous
cycle. Thus, the official NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted
slightly downward, and it now lies near or between the normally
reliable IVCN and HCCA aids. The forecast still shows Linda briefly
peaking as an 85-kt hurricane in 60 h, in deference to the stronger
HWRF and HMON solutions. Thereafter, gradually cooler SSTs and drier
mid-tropospheric air along its track should induce a weakening trend
through the rest of the period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 14.1N 107.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 14.6N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 15.7N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 16.7N 112.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 17.7N 114.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 18.5N 116.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 19.0N 118.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 19.0N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 19.0N 126.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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