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Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
300 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021
 
Recent proxy-visible satellite imagery indicates that the low-level 
center of Linda lies near the northwestern extent of the dense 
overcast, as its deep convection is being displaced southward by 
moderate northerly wind shear. Although its center was briefly 
partially exposed overnight, it appears that the center has recently 
moved a bit farther underneath the cirrus canopy. A 0318 UTC ASCAT-A 
pass shows several 50-kt wind vectors in the northeastern quadrant 
of Linda. After accounting for some known undersampling issues of 
the instrument at higher wind speeds, this supports maintaining the 
initial intensity at 60 kt for this advisory. This estimate is also 
consistent with a blend of the subjective Dvorak current intensity 
estimates received from TAFB (55 kt) and SAB (65 kt).
 
After a brief west-southwest turn yesterday, Linda is now moving 
slowly west-northwestward at around 285/5 kt. This general motion 
with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days 
as Linda moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer 
ridge. By days 4 and 5, the cyclone is forecast to turn westward as 
the steering ridge strengthens to its north. Overall, the guidance 
is in good agreement on the track of Linda. The official NHC track 
forecast is shifted a bit north of the previous one, which brings it 
closer to the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. The cyclone is expected 
to pass near or south of Clarion Island on Friday night.  
 
The northerly wind shear that has plagued Linda for the past couple 
days is forecast to persist for another 24 h, then diminish slightly 
by this weekend. Otherwise, Linda will remain over very warm SSTs in 
a moist, unstable environment for the next couple days or so, which 
should favor at least some modest strengthening. However, the latest 
intensity guidance consensus is somewhat weaker than the previous 
cycle. Thus, the official NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted 
slightly downward, and it now lies near or between the normally 
reliable IVCN and HCCA aids. The forecast still shows Linda briefly 
peaking as an 85-kt hurricane in 60 h, in deference to the stronger 
HWRF and HMON solutions. Thereafter, gradually cooler SSTs and drier 
mid-tropospheric air along its track should induce a weakening trend 
through the rest of the period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0900Z 14.1N 107.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 14.6N 108.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 15.7N 110.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 16.7N 112.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 17.7N 114.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  14/1800Z 18.5N 116.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  15/0600Z 19.0N 118.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  16/0600Z 19.0N 122.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  17/0600Z 19.0N 126.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
 
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