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Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021
 
Despite a continuation of moderate deep-layer shear, Linda is 
becoming better organized.  Upper-level outflow appears to be 
expanding over the system, but even more notably, an 1109 UTC SSMIS 
microwave pass revealed that a well-defined mid-level eye has 
formed.  Dvorak T-numbers have increased to T3.5 from both TAFB and 
SAB, and given the significantly improved microwave structure, 
Linda's initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt.

The latest fixes, including from the microwave pass, indicate that 
Linda is moving a little faster and more south of due west, or 
265/10 kt.  This motion is being caused by a large mid-level ridge 
located over Mexico, and the ridging is expected to maintain Linda 
on a westward and then west-northwestward track for the next 5 
days.  There is very tight clustering among the track models for 
the entire forecast period, and the updated NHC track forecast lies 
very close to the HCCA consensus aid.  This new forecast has been 
shifted a bit to the left of the previous official forecast to 
account for the updated initial position.

Linda will be moving through an environment of mixed favorability 
for strengthening.  On the positive side, sea surface temperatures 
will hover around 28 degrees Celsius, mid-level moisture will 
remain high, and upper-level divergence should be strong for the 
next day or two.  On the negative side, the deep-layer shear is not 
expected to abate much for several days.  That being said, the 
system has still been able to strengthen, and the intensity models 
support further intensification.  The NHC intensity forecast 
generally lies between the HCCA aid and the IVCN consensus, and 
brings Linda to hurricane strength tonight with a peak intensity  
occurring in 2-3 days.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/1500Z 13.8N 105.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 13.8N 106.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 14.3N 108.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 15.2N 110.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 16.2N 112.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  14/0000Z 17.2N 114.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z 17.9N 116.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  15/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  16/1200Z 19.1N 123.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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