ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Despite a continuation of moderate deep-layer shear, Linda is becoming better organized. Upper-level outflow appears to be expanding over the system, but even more notably, an 1109 UTC SSMIS microwave pass revealed that a well-defined mid-level eye has formed. Dvorak T-numbers have increased to T3.5 from both TAFB and SAB, and given the significantly improved microwave structure, Linda's initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt. The latest fixes, including from the microwave pass, indicate that Linda is moving a little faster and more south of due west, or 265/10 kt. This motion is being caused by a large mid-level ridge located over Mexico, and the ridging is expected to maintain Linda on a westward and then west-northwestward track for the next 5 days. There is very tight clustering among the track models for the entire forecast period, and the updated NHC track forecast lies very close to the HCCA consensus aid. This new forecast has been shifted a bit to the left of the previous official forecast to account for the updated initial position. Linda will be moving through an environment of mixed favorability for strengthening. On the positive side, sea surface temperatures will hover around 28 degrees Celsius, mid-level moisture will remain high, and upper-level divergence should be strong for the next day or two. On the negative side, the deep-layer shear is not expected to abate much for several days. That being said, the system has still been able to strengthen, and the intensity models support further intensification. The NHC intensity forecast generally lies between the HCCA aid and the IVCN consensus, and brings Linda to hurricane strength tonight with a peak intensity occurring in 2-3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 13.8N 105.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 13.8N 106.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 14.3N 108.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 15.2N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 16.2N 112.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 17.2N 114.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 17.9N 116.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 19.1N 123.8W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:10:02 UTC