ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
400 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021
Satellite imagery suggests that Linda is still experiencing some
strong north-northeasterly vertical wind shear. The deep convection
and coldest infrared cloud tops have been displaced to the south of
the estimated low-level center for much of the overnight period,
although the position estimate is somewhat uncertain without any
recent scatterometer or microwave data. Additionally, the
upper-level outflow is sharply restricted on the upshear side of the
cyclone. Although no scatterometer passes hit the center of Linda,
ASCAT-C data across the western side of the cyclone showed at least
35 to 40-kt winds with a few marginal 45-kt vectors along the edge
of the swath. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this
advisory, in best agreement with a T3.0/45 kt subjective Dvorak
classification from TAFB.
Linda's estimated motion is just north of due west, or 275/8 kt.
This westward motion is expected to continue through tonight as the
cyclone is steered by a building ridge to its north. Then, the track
guidance agrees that Linda will turn west-northwestward on Thursday
and maintain this general heading through the weekend, keeping the
system well offshore of southwestern Mexico. The updated NHC track
forecast has been adjusted a little south of the previous one based
on the latest TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.
The short-term intensity forecast is a bit tricky, since it is
uncertain how the persistent deep convection has changed the
structure of the cyclone. Although the moderate to strong shear is
expected to persist for the next couple of days, very warm SSTs and
a moist, unstable environment should allow for at least some
strengthening. Linda is still forecast to become a hurricane later
this week. The wind shear is expected to diminish on Friday and
Saturday, while the thermodynamic environment remains favorable for
some continued development. Thus, Linda could continue strengthening
into the weekend before it reaches cooler SSTs and begins a gradual
weakening trend near the end of the period. Overall, the NHC
intensity forecast is a bit weaker than the previous one and shows a
slightly slower intensification rate in the near-term, closer to the
IVCN consensus aid.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 14.2N 104.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 14.2N 105.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 14.6N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 15.3N 108.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 16.3N 110.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 17.3N 112.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 18.1N 114.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 19.2N 118.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 19.5N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
NNNN