ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
400 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021
 
Satellite imagery suggests that Linda is still experiencing some 
strong north-northeasterly vertical wind shear. The deep convection 
and coldest infrared cloud tops have been displaced to the south of 
the estimated low-level center for much of the overnight period, 
although the position estimate is somewhat uncertain without any 
recent scatterometer or microwave data. Additionally, the 
upper-level outflow is sharply restricted on the upshear side of the 
cyclone. Although no scatterometer passes hit the center of Linda, 
ASCAT-C data across the western side of the cyclone showed at least 
35 to 40-kt winds with a few marginal 45-kt vectors along the edge 
of the swath. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this 
advisory, in best agreement with a T3.0/45 kt subjective Dvorak 
classification from TAFB.  
 
Linda's estimated motion is just north of due west, or 275/8 kt. 
This westward motion is expected to continue through tonight as the 
cyclone is steered by a building ridge to its north. Then, the track 
guidance agrees that Linda will turn west-northwestward on Thursday 
and maintain this general heading through the weekend, keeping the 
system well offshore of southwestern Mexico. The updated NHC track 
forecast has been adjusted a little south of the previous one based 
on the latest TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. 

The short-term intensity forecast is a bit tricky, since it is 
uncertain how the persistent deep convection has changed the 
structure of the cyclone. Although the moderate to strong shear is 
expected to persist for the next couple of days, very warm SSTs and 
a moist, unstable environment should allow for at least some 
strengthening. Linda is still forecast to become a hurricane later 
this week. The wind shear is expected to diminish on Friday and 
Saturday, while the thermodynamic environment remains favorable for 
some continued development. Thus, Linda could continue strengthening 
into the weekend before it reaches cooler SSTs and begins a gradual 
weakening trend near the end of the period. Overall, the NHC 
intensity forecast is a bit weaker than the previous one and shows a 
slightly slower intensification rate in the near-term, closer to the 
IVCN consensus aid.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 14.2N 104.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 14.2N 105.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 14.6N 106.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 15.3N 108.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z 16.3N 110.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  13/1800Z 17.3N 112.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  14/0600Z 18.1N 114.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  15/0600Z 19.2N 118.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  16/0600Z 19.5N 122.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
 
NNNN