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Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021
Linda appears to be on an intensification trend this evening. The
low-level center, after being partially exposed to the north earlier
today, has recently become obscured by a large convective burst.
There is also some evidence of banding on the northwest side of the
center as well. The most recent 0000 UTC TAFB Dvorak estimate was
T3.0/45 kt and given the improvement in structure on satellite
imagery, the initial intensity was set to 45 kt for this advisory.
Linda appears to be starting a turn to the west, with the latest
motion now estimated at 285/8 kt. A more westward motion appears
likely in the short term as a deep-layer ridge builds in to the
north of the tropical storm. Afterwards, the guidance remains
tightly clustered on a resumption of a west-northwest track between
36-72 hours. The latest NHC track forecast is quite similar to the
previous one, except for a bit more westward motion in the
short-term. The overall track forecast remains in excellent
agreement with the track guidance consensus, and is roughly a blend
between the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and TVCE
consensus aids.
The moderate northerly shear that has been affecting Linda today
does not appear to be hindering the storm from intensifying
currently. In fact, the ongoing convective burst may help to better
align the low and mid-level centers, which could allow for a faster
rate of intensification in the short-term. For this reason, the
intensity forecast for the next 48 hours has been increased, with
Linda now forecast to peak as a 90 knot hurricane in 60 hours.
Thereafter, while vertical wind shear and mid-level moisture are
expected to remain favorable, sea-surface temperatures will begin to
gradually decrease. Linda will also be traversing the same location
that the large wind field of Kevin is currently over, and Kevin's
large 34-kt wind radii may also lower the sea-surface temperatures
along the path of Linda. The latest NHC intensity forecast is now
around the mean of the guidance envelope through the first 48 hours,
but still remains lower than the reliable HCCA guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 14.3N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 14.3N 104.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 14.5N 106.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 15.1N 107.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 16.1N 108.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 17.2N 110.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 18.0N 112.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 19.3N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 19.7N 120.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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